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Posts tagged ‘Nigeria Governors Forum’

2015: Aides analyse how President Jonathan can win, lose.


Plans by close aides of President Goodluck Jonathan to win re-election include exploiting division in the ranks of the nation’s governors, playing on the political ambitions of some Northern power brokers and the promotion of a clash of egos between the leaders of All Progressives Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.)

The plans, believed to have been prepared by close aides of the President ahead of the 2015 election, identified the House of Representatives, which the strategists claim to have become the mouthpiece of the opposition, the President’s ineffective utilisation of his powers and the dominance of ethnic jingoists around President Jonathan as some of the major weaknesses for the president’s second term campaign.


The strategists also cited APC, if it does not implode, the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, the Northern States Governors Forum, regional alliances, especially in the North, as some serious threats to the President in having a smooth return to power.

The strategy document, entitled 2013-2015: Political power and governance road map, believed to have been prepared in the last quarter of last year and had been the subject of speculation, came to light yesterday when it was published by Premium Times, an online news platform.

The crux of the strategy is a SWOT analysis which underpinned the President’s Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats in the run up to the decisive election.

In the SWOT analysis, reproduced by Premium Times, the President’s handlers also cited the strengths of the President to include the power of incumbency, access to secure cash, the backing of a formidable political structure, among others.

The document was produced after the split of PDP, but before the exit of five governors, who recently left the party for APC.

Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Communications, Dr. Doyin Okupe, said he was on holiday yesterday, but claimed that “if the President has a plan to win the 2015 elections, I can assure you that it can never be found in Premium Times.”
The SWOT analysis read in part Strengths:

Power of incumbency and utilisation of governance machinery, especially the careful and legal deployment of its propaganda and coercive apparatus; secure financial resources base and leveraging on strategic media assets.
Others are formidable political apparatus—a reformed, disciplined and tightly controlled PDP— with significant presence in all the 36 states and dominant control over 23 states;

Deep-rooted, nation-wide support structures in the shape of Goodluck Support Group and literally speaking, hundreds of youths, women and regional affiliates controlled and supervised by the more dominant support structures;

Effective and efficient implementation of the transformation agenda in critical national sectors; high personal likeability rating, which has to be further strengthened and deepened;

When the chips are down, immense support will be secured from the National Council of State by ex-leaders who value continuity and order over instability and chaos.


•A less than forceful Presidential presence and infective deployment and application of presidential power
The perceived appropriation of presidential advocacy space by exuberant partisans and fanatical supporters who project a wrong image of the presidency as a regional agenda. This situation tends to alienate moderate political forces across the country whose sense of co-ownership of the presidency appears diminished

•A perceived sense of distance between the Presidency and the PDP that has opened the space for internal dissention and outright rebellion by party stalwarts. This sense of disinterest and disengagement has engendered a culture of apology among Presidential spokespersons whenever matters connecting Mr President and the party appear on the public sphere

•Following on the above, the reality of Mr President being the leaders of the nation and the LEADER OF THE PARTY is not sufficiently grounded

•A technocratic cabinet that is not fully politically engaged, especially in media advocacy and community-wide outreach programmes. This unhelpful situation out burdens a handful regime insiders in their constant defense of The Presidency and the Transformation agenda

•A presidential communication strategy that is weak on proactive propaganda and rapid response

•Inability of Presidential power strategists to manage the relationship between The Presidency and the NASS to the degree that the later, particularly the HOR, which is dominated by the PDP, appears as an outfit and mouthpiece of the opposition

•Problematic relationship between the Presidency and some former heads of State when, in actuality, they should constitute the bedrock of his support

•Exploiting the current fractured state of the NGF for maximum political advantage by strengthening the co-operative faction and sustaining the pressure on recalcitrant PDP governors

•Exploiting the opportunities inherent in the putative fracturing of the Northern Governors’ Forum by strengthening co-operative governors and sustaining pressure, directly and through different front organizations, on the recalcitrant governors

•Playing on the political ambitions of regional champions, especially in the North, to the degree and extent that no unanimity of political purpose and cohesive agenda is ever achieved

•The APC may appear as a formidable threat initially but substantive opportunities will abound when ambitions and egos clash among its principal promoters. Strategic planning should factor in the scenario in the designing of intervention blueprint

•Exploiting the immense public opinion opportunities in the current war against terror in the North, especially given the steady successes thus far recorded by the NSA, and the military high command through the JTF

•Utilizing the social and economic empowering and inclusive space provided by SURE-P, particularly its integrated community empowerment schemes, to advertise and show case the populist and pro-people orientation of the government
There are sufficient grounds to believe that the NASS continues to pose a threat to the effective exercise of Presidential power in the areas of budget-making processes and the on-going amendments of the constitution with specific reference to devolution of power and tenure of elected officials.

Source: Radio Biafra.

PDP: A Party’s Journey To Political Oblivion By Ogunjimi James Taiwo.

By Ogunjimi James Taiwo

“Dangerous consequences will follow when politicians and rulers forget moral principles.” – Dalai Lama

The case of the crises in the Peoples Democratic Party is a case of their long series of illegality coming back to haunt them. I said it sometime ago that when you see a person(s), group or platform that lays claim to democracy and yet makes a mockery of it like the PDP does, it’s only a matter of time, its consequence will come back to haunt them. And that is the exact decipher of the political mess PDP is enmeshed in.

First we were hit with the Nigeria Governors Forum crisis where the PDP-led FG recognised Governor Jang of Plateau state who had 16 votes over Governor Amaechi of Rivers state who had 19 votes. It will be recalled that this kick-started the conflagration that has now engulfed the PDP. It led to an arrant disrespect of a serving governor by the first lady (an unconstitutional entity), and the Minister of State for Education, Barrister Nyesom Wike. The response of PDP as all these went on was anything but democratic; it was a continuation of their regular acts of forcing their way through. Wike left his duty post and ‘re-located’ to Rivers State where he promised to cause mayhem in the state, that nobody will be able to sleep with their eyes closed; a threat he fulfilled well with the full backing of the Presidency. If history has taught us anything, it’s that bullying your way out of every situation in a democracy always backfires. The PDP is learning that lesson the hard way now.

As the face-off between the Presidency and Governor Amaechi continued, we were hit with yet another FG-sponsored brouhaha at the Rivers state house of assembly where 5 people attempted to impeach the Speaker. And yet, the new ‘speaker’ was recognised.

You see, the problem with PDP is that they have a twisted understanding of the word democracy. Democracy isn’t about forcing your views and wishes down the throat of others; it’s about respecting the views of the party majority enough to bow to it. It isn’t about forcing your way out of every situation; it’s about learning to embrace dialogue as a means of conflict resolution. It’s not about flinging insults and talking non-stop on the pages of newspapers; it’s about sitting down to listen to the yearning of the people. It’s not about suspending and disciplining people who differ from your point of view or challenge the status quo; it’s about having the moral courage to accept criticism and difference of opinion.

The factionalisation of the PDP didn’t just happen; it has come on the heel of a long string of irregularities sponsored and tolerated in different sectors of the country. The Student arm, NANS has been hijacked, the Youth arm, NYCN, hijacked, Nigeria Governors Forum, NGF, hijacked. With all these high-profile hijacking that the PDP has masterminded, it was only a matter of time before they faced the backlash of their actions. So the split in PDP has been a long time coming.

But there’s one thing Nigerians must be wary of; we must not be naïve enough to think that the breakaway faction of the PDP is breaking out because they care about the plight of ordinary Nigerians and abhor the fact that the Tukur-led PDP has absolutely no plan to lessen the burden of the Nigerian masses; No, they are breaking away because they have lost relevance in the Tukur-led PDP and want a PDP of their own where they can command enough authority to pacify their bloated egos. A look at the breakaway faction and their actions in the different posts they hold or have held, tells us everything we need to know about them. We must never allow ourselves to be so delusional that we begin to see the breakaway faction as our saviours; they are not and they never have been.

As PDP takes its final steps into political oblivion, we owe ourselves the duty of watching out for whatever party touts itself as our salvation and look deeply to see if they exhibit any of the traits that we’ve had to put up with in PDP’s 14 years of political rape of the Nigerian masses; if any of the party(s) show even the slightest of traits that characterised PDP’s 14 years of nothingness, we must ignore them, regardless of their power of oratory or political stature. We have been trapped for 14 years in PDP’s web of lies, we must not walk ourselves into yet another web of deceit. The onus lies on us to awake to the urgency of now and open our eyes enough to recognise lies when we see one.

God bless Nigerians!

Ogunjimi James Taiwo
Ogun State, Nigeria
September 2013.

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PDP Split: Progressive Governors Forum Congratulates Breakaway PDP Governors.

By Progressive Governors Forum

The Progressive Governors Forum (PGF) welcome the PDP split of August 31, 2013 and the emergence of Abubakar Kawu Baraje led PDP as a necessary and inevitable result of repressive rule of the PDP. Recent events, first with the orchestrated crisis in the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF), suspension and expulsion of PDP leaders, including serving Governors without fair hearing and complete demonstration of lack of tolerance and respect for different opinions are signposts of crisis that should unavoidably result in the split of any organization.

The PGF commend the courage and resilience of the Baraje-led PDP and in particular congratulate all the serving PDP Governors for standing up to be counted among patriotic political leaders of Nigeria. It must no doubt be a conscious decision that must have been borne out of commitment to make all the sacrifices needed to rescue our dear nation from the current reign of terror and bad governance.

As serving governors too, we are ready to support, work with our colleagues in partnership and solidarity with the goal of facilitating accelerated human development by embracing policies and programs to improve quality of life of all Nigerian citizens, eradicate poverty and create jobs in the country. We are under no illusion that our reality as a nation today calls for both intra and inter party networking.

We are therefore ready to transform our relationship with all serving governors irrespective of our partisan differences in order to move our dear country, Nigeria, forward.

Nigeria has outlived all dictatorships in the past and will definitely outlive any present or latent, manifest or potential dictatorship. Congratulations!

September 1, 2013


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