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Posts tagged ‘Stuart Rothenberg’

WSJ: GOP Making Bold, Massive Bid to Take Senate.

Image: WSJ: GOP Making Bold, Massive Bid to Take SenateScott Brown, left, and Ed Gillespie

By Melissa Clyne

In its bid to gain the Senate majority in the midterm elections later this year, the GOP is crafting its strategy straight from the 2012 Democratic playbook, according to The Washington Post.

Republicans are casting a wide net to pick up the six seats needed to secure a majority, putting up viable candidates in a plethora of states where they hope to capitalize on President Barack Obama’s dismal job performance ratings as well as the national furor over Obamacare.

“The key to the Republican strategy is making the next tier of seats [and recruits] as large as possible since a few candidates will flame out, some incumbents will prove tougher to beat than they appear, and the national political environment could shift several times between now and November,” the Post notes.

Republicans need to win six new seats to flip the current Democratic majority of 55-to-45. In the current political climate, they are expected to gain between four and seven seats, according to the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report. 

States where the GOP can prevail include Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Virginia, and possibly Minnesota. Five of the vulnerabilities stem from retirement announcements by Democratic senators Max Baucus of Montana, Carl Levin of Michigan, Tom Harkin of Iowa, Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, and South Dakota’s Tim Johnson.

Midterm elections are historically unkind to the sitting president’s party. Add to that the hysteria over a botched healthcare law rollout and millions of Americans receiving notices of canceled insurance plans and it’s a recipe for an ouster.

According to the Wall Street Journal, five states Obama won in 2012 — Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, and New Hampshire — are now considered vulnerabilities.

In Virginia, former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie should be “a very credible contender who can raise considerable money,” according to the Rothenberg Report, and former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown trails New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen by just three points and he hasn’t even announced whether he intends to run.

“I’d be more worried if I were a Democrat than if I was a Republican,” Rothenberg Report editor Stuart Rothenberg told the Journal. “The Republicans’ prospects in the existing targets are improving because of the president’s approval ratings, and they are continuing to put other races on the board.”

By offering voters strong GOP alternatives in a variety of states, even those historically blue, Republicans hope that hijacking the Democrats 2012 strategy proves to be a winner.

“One thing’s for sure,” political columnist Chris Cillizza writes in the Post. “If they make it over the top this November, Senate Republicans should send their Democratic counterparts a nice thank you gift for showing them the way.”

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© 2014 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Rove: Democrats Unlikely to Retake House in 2014 Elections.

Image: Rove: Democrats Unlikely to Retake House in 2014 Elections

Thursday, 15 Aug 2013 11:17 AM

By Dan Weil

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Democrats have little chance of winning control of the House in next year’s elections, says Republican strategist Karl Rove. Indeed, the odds are better for Republicans to increase their advantage, he claims.

The Republicans now hold a 234 to 201 majority, meaning Democrats need to pick up a net 17 seats to regain the upper hand.

“One difficulty for Mr. Obama is that there are few open seats,” Rove writes in his weeklyWall Street journal column.

Special: Should Obama’s Health Plan Be Overturned? Vote Here Now!

“Ten Republicans and six Democrats have announced they are retiring or running for higher office. All of these 16 seats appear safely in the incumbent party’s hands, making it difficult for either side to make significant gains.”

Top election analysts Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato and Stuart Rothenberg estimate the number of competitive seats at 36 to 49, Rove says. “By comparison, more than 100 congressional seats were in play during the 2010 mid-terms, most of them held by Democrats.”

Democrats occupy more of the competitive seats this time around too, Rove says. Cook, for example, sees eight Democratic seats as tossups, but only one Republican tossup. And Rove says that Democrats this time around will not be able to ride the coattails of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign

“The number of Democratic seats at risk is likely to grow,” Rove states. “There are 13 Democrats who won with 52 percent or less in 2012, all in districts Mr. Obama carried. Without a presidential campaign to help pull them to victory, some of these Democrats could go down.”

Democrats also may suffer more from primary challenges, Rove says. While the Club for Growth threatened to find primary opponents for 10 Republican congressmen, it has produced only one viable challenger so far, he says. Meanwhile, Democrats face six competitive primary contests.

As for fundraising, the average House member of either party has about $555,000 in campaign money, Rove says. “The 17 Republican congressmen in districts carried by Mr. Obama have an average of $792,000, while the nine Democratic congressmen in districts carried by Mr. Romney have an average of $510,000.”

Meanwhile, the 13 House Democrats who won with 52 percent or less of the vote in 2012 have an average of only $406,000 in cash, Rove says.

“At this moment, the relative paucity of competitive races points to a mid-term where there are likely to be only modest changes in the House, most likely in the GOP’s direction,” he writes.

Democrats will seek to benefit from their strong get-out-the-vote technology and major super-PAC fundraising, Rove says. “These would help. But if conditions next year are anything like this year — with a soft economy, low presidential approval numbers and problems implementing Obamacare — tactics alone won’t deliver a House Democratic majority,” he maintains..

“It will take Republicans shooting themselves — either by grossly overreaching or, more likely, by failing to articulate a positive conservative agenda for jobs, health care and prosperity.”

Special: Should Obama’s Health Plan Be Overturned? Vote Here Now!

© 2013 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Poll: Support for More Gun Control Sliding.

Public support for new gun control measures is decreasing, according to a USA Today poll conducted April 18-21.

The survey shows 49 percent of Americans favor a new, more onerous gun control law, while 45 percent are opposed.

In early April, 55 percent supported a stronger gun control law, according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. And that was a drop from 61 percent in February.

Most of those who support a bill don’t want to see compromise in it. A total of 61 percent says congressmen “should only agree to a stronger version of the bill, even if it might not pass.” Only 30 percent say they should “accept a weaker law” that can win approval.

“So much of the support for gun control is emotional, following the Newtown tragedy,” Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, tells USA Today. He was referring to the Connecticut school shooting that killed 26 in December.

“The longer you get away from there, people start thinking of other issues. They start thinking about terrorism or jobs or immigration, and not surprisingly, then some of the momentum behind gun control starts to fade,” Rothenberg says.

© 2013 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

By Newsmax Wires

Polls favor Obama. A conspiracy by Democrats and the media?.

More voters consider themselves Democrats rather than Republicans, and this is reflected in opinion polls showing Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney. Critics say the results are skewed.

Recent polling – especially in key battleground states – showsPresident Barack Obama with a widening lead over challenger Mitt Romney. It’s dispiriting to Republican leaders, and it would seem to put more wind into the Obama campaign’s sails headed into next week’s first presidential debate.

But among conservative commentators and some in the GOP, that just proves one thing: That the polls are rigged to give Democratsan apparent advantage, and that the mainstream media is buying into what amounts to a conspiracy by playing up such survey results.

“They’re trying to wrap this up before the debates even start,” Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show this week. “I think they’re trying to get this election finished and in the can by suppressing your vote and depressing you so that you just don’t think there’s any reason to vote, that it’s hopeless.”

Why do Election 2012 swing states matter? 5 resources to explain.

The essence of the complaint is that pollsters are basing their reports on too many Democrats having been surveyed – that when results showing Obama ahead by 6-8 points are properly weighted by party affiliation, the race is dead-even with Romney actually ahead in some places.

The response from professional pollsters is that any difference in the party balance of those surveyed is a reflection of how voters identify themselves today: 35 percent Democrats, 28 percent Republicans, and 33 percent Independents.

As both campaigns know, it’s also a fluid situation with how voters identify their party leanings right now more important than how they last registered. It’s why both campaigns are angling for cross-over voters and especially Independents. If Obama and Romney were to get everybody who identifies with their party plus half the Independents, Obama – today, at least – would win by 7 points.

Party identification changes as political tides change,” Frank Newport, Gallup’s editor-in-chief, wrote this week in his response to the controversy. “General shifts in the political environment can affect party identification just as they can affect presidential job approval and results of the ‘Who are you going to vote for?’ question.”

Gallup puts its question to voters agreeing to be surveyed this way: “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?” “Note that this question does not ask, ‘What was your party identification in November 2008?’ Nor does it ask, ‘Are you registered with one party or the other in your state?’” says Mr. Newport. “Our question uses the words ‘as of today’ and ‘consider.’ It is designed to measure fluidity in political self-identification.”

The key thing for campaigns and those reporting on them is too look at the bigger picture over time. Today’s snapshot – and this includes polls by the relatively conservative Fox News and Rasmussen Reports – shows Obama ahead during this period between the party conventions and the debates.

“If I don’t focus on an individual poll here or there and look at the dynamic of the race, and the broad array of polls, it tells me that the president has a significant lead at this point,” Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, told Reuters.

A related conservative complaint is that reporters and editors can become too obsessive about opinion polls.

“This produces headlines and TV coverage that seem intentionally designed to demoralize Republicans and persuade undecided ‘swing’ voters – who have a tendency to vote for the candidate they perceive as the likely winner – to support Obama,” writes Robert Stacy McCain at the American Spectator. “That such poll-driven coverage could function as a self-fulfilling prophecy – in factcreating the result it pretends to predict – is an increasing worry for conservatives.”

Not all conservatives are beating up on poll-takers and the media over the string of voter surveys showing Romney trailing in the race.

“I’ve been in politics long enough to know that the louder one side gets complaining about the polls, the more likely it is that this is the side that, in reality, actually is losing,” Erick Erickson, editor of theRedState blog, wrote this week.

“The reality is that Mitt Romney is behind, but that does not mean this thing is over,” Mr. Erickson writes. “It is close and Romney can very much still win this election.”

Why do Election 2012 swing states matter? 5 resources to explain.

 Source: YAHOO NEWS.

By Brad Knickerbocker | Christian Science Monitor

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